Embracing Uncertainty: The Unknown Future of Climate Change
April 28, 2013 in MDG 7 (Sustainability)
Ashley discusses the unknown future of climate change and how development policy must take this into account.
Climate change and environmental sustainability are some of the newest and most discussed international development issues. They are inherently complex and interdependent problems that will require long-term, cooperative solutions between all countries.
Cooperation has been a challenge, during the many conferences and policy meetings, both on the international and national scales. Tensions exist between what science says should be done and what can be politically agreed upon to slow the temperature rise. These tensions have been attributed to national interests taking priority and a commitment to economic growth that is seen as incompatible with carbon reduction initiatives.
Perhaps a more determining factor that has limited cooperation is the overwhelming amount of scientific evidence being discussed. There are multiple interpretations predicting the effects of greenhouse gas emissions will have in the future. Policy makers don’t know how to translate this constant and evolving stream of information into coherent policy initiatives. There is just no firm consensus to what can and should be done
Recently, The Economist proposed that the warming globe might be less due to human activity than previously stated in the widely cited IPCC 4th assessment report. The article triggered an immediate rebuttal by the Center for International Forestry research, arguing that this information was based on incomplete information and a misinterpretation of longitudinal temperature datasets.
This information came just months after an article proposing that not only are particular fuel particles, known as ‘black carbon’, the principle driver of climate change, but that they are even more consequential than previously thought due to their super heat-trapping abilities. From this point of view, mitigation is even more of a policy priority.
There is also the highly anticipated IPCC 5th Assessment Report due out next year. Preliminary drafts and coverage of the report anticipate that new models predicting the effects of rising temperatures will show more conservative changes than previously published. This seems to be consistent with recent research findings that past projection models have overshot actual near surface temperatures until 2010. Whether these changes are anthropogenic (caused by humans) is still unclear.
Perhaps these examples don’t demonstrate conflicting evidence, but illustrate the dynamic nature of earth temperatures and the complex interplay of the world and its inhabitants that we have yet to fully understand. I personally am not convinced that this means we are any closer to understanding how the earth’s cycle works and which stage of it we currently live in.
A level of acceptance of uncertainty is needed. Although we are responsible for the carbon emissions in the air, and to a certain extent, can control how much is emitted, we cannot be certain which carbon particles affect the globe the most and to what extent. Mitigating climate change should still be a priority, but an expectation of a world that will most likely look different from the one we live in today should be the premise that we work from. We don’t have all the answers or knowledge and we need to accept this.
We should move beyond trying to make policy based on particular projections and specific pictures of the effects of a rise in 1°C will be and accept the unknown. We don’t know what will happen, what it will look like, or how people who are currently in their youth will live in the future. One thing is for certain, adaptation is imminent, and should be treated as such.
I was relieved to see that adaptation was a big priority in My World 2015 survey. It recognised that we have moved beyond depending on mitigation solutions to live in the future and toward the area of uncertainty where we should prepare the most vulnerable countries, their futures and young people for a world that may possibly (but we are unsure) look very different from the one we live in today.
Last week the 
This goal deals with an integral issue, which solution should involve concepts related to development from all its approaches; its accomplishment depends on many factors, like empowerment of the communities and implementation of entrepreneurship programs, along with financial assistance, in order to attack the issue from the root, rather than only diminishing its consequences. Furthermore, involvement from the civil society constitutes an essential factor in the quest for equality and social justice, along with the political will of government representatives of any kind and level; they should be encourage to build a reliable database using empirical evidence, that will allow those in charge of resources to properly allocate them. We strongly suggest the leaders throughout the world to become involved in the solution of this issue, taking into account that every person has dignity and is entitled to the right t food and development.
The following are actions taken around the globe, which can be more broadly utilized, to implement Goal 2 of the Millennium Development Goals; to ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling. Remove fees associated with attending school, including the cost of tuition, books, supplies, uniforms, and transportation. Provide amnesty for undocumented, migrant, and refugee children to attend school with out deportation or other consequences. Provide two meals a day to encourage families facing poverty to send their children to school. Address gender barriers, especially in rural areas. Provide feasible transportation to children, or adopt mobile schools.
It become evident in the group discusions that the 8 MDG is not recognised and the information around the issues that it affects is not well recognised. This goal deals with developing an open finance system and non discriminatory trading practices. After much delibaration some points were agreed upon as to how this MDG could be improved to suit a system based approach of how the MDG’s should be implemented. Overally the group felt the MDG was articulated on a top down approach and very much western centric.Thus not representing the real issues of all countries. Firstly the use of ‘partners’ in wording of the MDG should be replaced with ‘stakeholders’ as this word is more inclusive of all the actors in achieving this MDG. There was a consesus that debt problems is not only on developing countries thus it should change focus and include all countries and also include debt owing to international monetary organisations. Also that the issue of tarrifs should be reduced or removed as countries for example the UK places high tariifs on products from Africa of which the collect more money then the one the give aid to the African continent. Much needs to be done on this MDG in order to achieve its targets.
The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) are the world’s time bound and quantified targets for addressing extreme poverty, hunger, disease, lack of adequate shelter and exclusion while promoting gender equality, education and environmental sustainability. There are eight goals and this article focuses on MDG 6 which targets to combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases.
Bangladesh, being geographically positioned at the receiving end of perhaps the largest river system, and owing to other concomitant factors like the deltaic formation history and low-line coastal morphology has become the most disaster prone region on earth. Processes embedded in the nature, caused by multitudinous factors, constitute hazards to the environment of this region having severe aftermath on local lives, property and livelihoods of the population, and eventually, impeding the overall socio-economic development of Bangladesh. The (co)occurrence of these natural events are often coupled and multiplied with the high base vulnerabilities of the individuals, households and communities results in disasters that further drive the country towards greater environmental degradation, hunger, poverty, social deprivation and political conflicts, thereby impeding the development of Bangladesh. Therefore, over the last few decades, both national and international communities have been engaged in counteracting the negative developmental impacts of disasters as well as ensuring that development interventions do not exacerbate vulnerability to hazards.
It become evident in the group discusions that the 8 MDG is not recognised and the information around the issues that it affects is not well recognised. This goal deals with developing an open finance system and non discriminatory trading practices. After much delibaration some points were agreed upon as to how this MDG could be improved to suit a system based approach of how the MDG’s should be implemented. Overally the group felt the MDG was articulated on a top down approach and very much western centric.Thus not representing the real issues of all countries. Firstly the use of ‘partners’ in wording of the MDG should be replaced with ‘stakeholders’ as this word is more inclusive of all the actors in achieving this MDG. There was a consesus that debt problems is not only on developing countries thus it should change focus and include all countries and also include debt owing to international monetary organisations. Also that the issue of tarrifs should be reduced or removed as countries for example the UK places high tariifs on products from Africa of which the collect more money then the one the give aid to the African continent. Much needs to be done on this MDG in order to achive its targets.
